|
Office Location
The Team
Guest Signing In
for
Opening Ceremony
Armstrong
President for
Asia Pacific
Operation
Presenting
Concept
of EcoSynergy
Retail Showcase
in Pudong
Sales
presentation of
Intellpower
Products
Product
presentation at
Mobile Kiosk in
one of
Shanghai's
hypermarkets
Intellpower
showcase
attracting large
crowd
|
产品说明
Industry Background
The new China, with
rapid economic growth and industrialization, also witness
increasing strain on power infrastructure.
For the common
folks, they know just one thing; power rationing is becoming
more and more frequent especially during winter and summer.
Since 1996, China’s energy
output has dropped by 17%, while primary energy use has
fallen by 4%, driven almost entirely by shrinking output
from coal mines and declining direct use.
Since China is the world’s
second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Generation of
electric power has risen, implying a steep fall in end uses,
particularly in industry.
Available information points to a variety of forces
contributing to this phenomenon, including rapid
improvements in coal quality, structural changes in
industry, shutdowns of factories in both the state-owned and
non-state segments of the economy, improvements in end-use
efficiency, and greater use of gas and electricity in
households.
A combination of slowing
economic growth, industrial restructuring, broader economic
system reforms, and environmental and energy efficiency
policies has apparently led to at least a temporary decline
in, and perhaps a long-term reduction in the growth of
energy use, and therefore greenhouse gas emissions.
Electrical Energy
Power generation has risen faster than production of any
other form of energy, rising at an average rate of 7.8% per
year since 1980 to reach nearly 1,179 TWh in 1998 (Figure
6). Growth was fastest in the early 1990s, reaching the
double digits in several years, slowed to 2.8% in 1998, and
has recovered somewhat in 1999. In 1997, coal-fired power
plants accounted for 92% of power generated by fossil
fuel-fired units, with small oil- and gas-fired units making
up the remainder.
Installed generating capacity has risen slightly faster than
generation, at 8.2% per year since 1980, reaching 270 GW in
1998 (SSB, 1998a; People’s Daily, 14 September 1999).
Installed capacity at the end of 1998 was 6.2% higher than
in 1997, as projects already underway were completed. Many
power plant construction projects have slowed, however, and
approvals and financing of new projects have been delayed,
and preferential treatment for foreign power developers has
been scaled back (SCMP, 1998a). This slowdown comes as
capacity has surpassed demand in many areas of China,
particularly along the coast and in the northeast. In 1998,
the State Development and Planning Commission (SDPC)
estimated that roughly 40% of China’s area experienced
surpluses of generating capacity, while 20% still suffered
power shortages, with the remaining 40% in balance (SCMP,
1998b). This excess is reflected in falling average capacity
factors since 1995.
Another factor contributing to slower growth in power
generation is the closing of small power plants. For years,
the central government has prohibited (with varying degrees
of effectiveness) the construction of small power plants,
and has advocated that existing ones be taken out of
service. Coal-fired power plants of 50 MW and under tend to
be less efficient and more highly polluting per kW of
generating capacity than larger plants. With growth in
demand slowing, and sensitivity to environmental pollution
gaining strength, the government has renewed its commitment
to shutting plants down. According to one report, 2.84 GW of
plants smaller than 100 MW were closed in 1997 and 1998, and
a further 1.8 GW were slated for closure in 1999. This is to
be followed by closure of an additional 7.74 GW in 2000, so
additional efficiency gains will be likely be forthcoming.
Shutting down of old, inefficient, and rarely used plants
could account for reduced coal use in the utility sector of
5 to 10 Mt of coal per year.
In general, the size of the
average power plant in China is growing, since most new
plants are larger than older ones. From 1993 to 1997, when
installed capacity of coal-fired generating units grew from
119 GW to 171 GW and the installed capacity in all size
categories rose, the fraction
of coal-fired units 300 MW and larger grew from 21% to
nearly 29%.
A major implication is that the
average efficiency of generation should be rising
substantially, always assuming, of course, that efficiencies
for larger plants are higher, and that average efficiencies
for each plant remain constant. Even with relatively rapid
efficiency improvements through this kind of structural
change in the utility sector, though, coal consumption per
kWh generated would probably not decline faster than 1% to
2% per year,11 or 5 to 10 Mt per year. In 1998, for example,
the amount of coal required to generate one kWh in the
average plant fell by 5 grams of standard coal equivalent (gce),
or about 1.3%, avoiding consumption of more than 6 Mt coal.
Such improvements in generation efficiency would account for
a small, but significant portion of the recent annual
declines in coal demand.
On the other hand, many industrial enterprises have their
own power generation capacity, including cogeneration units,
diesel- and coal-fired units, and equipment that uses waste
heat and combustible gases from industrial processes to
generate power. This self-generation capacity has been
growing in recent years. This would most likely have the
effect of bringing down the average efficiency of power
generation, since the smaller power units typically have
efficiencies far below those of central power plants. The
situation is complicated, however, since cogeneration units,
which provide both heat and steam, and units using waste
heat and gas typically raise the efficiency of power
generation. A more thorough understanding of the structure
and trends among self-generators would be needed to
determine the net impact on coal use.
Assuming that China avoids a recession, it is likely that
power demand and output will continue to grow at a more
rapid rate than in 1998. Preliminary indications suggest
that power generation will rise by about 4% in 1999. Along
with economic growth, there is a long-term trend in China—as
in other developing economies—towards electrification in
industry and households, as new end-use applications become
widespread (e.g., computers, office equipment, and
environmental control equipment) and as electricity
substitutes for fuels in current end-use applications (e.g.,
cooking). There is also tremendous latent consumer demand
for power in China. Many households across China pay high
premiums to upgrade wiring to handle larger loads,
indicating that limits to transmission and distribution
constrain demand. Even if overall energy use continues to
drop, it is quite possible that power demand will keep
growing.
Biomass and Other
Renewable Energy
Biomass energy remains a
significant source of energy for much of China’s rural
population. Most biomass fuels are used for home cooking and
heating and for agriculture, and are not tied to major
portions of economic activity. In energy terms, the amount
used is approximately equivalent to oil consumption. Unlike
oil, however, biomass use has been dropping since the 1980s,
as greater supplies of coal and electricity have become
available to rural residents, who make up the largest
portion of China’s population. Between 1991 and 1996 alone,
biomass energy use in China’s rural areas fell by nearly one
fourth, while the ratio of biomass energy use to commercial
energy use fell from 0.26 to 0.15. Biogas use has been
rising, but it still accounts for less than 1% of biomass
energy.
Most areas of China have at least one large renewable energy
resource. More than most developing countries, China has
made significant¾and relatively successful efforts to
promote renewable energy use, particularly as an adjunct to
the overall programs for rural development and
electrification. China expects to have around 20 GW of
renewable power generation capacity often have heat rates
twice as high as the national average, but, even assuming
national average heat rates, they would have used 5 to 6 Mt
of coal per year in the early 1990s.
 |
